Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Guinea 0-0 Algeria. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Guinea nor Algeria found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guinea led Total shots 6-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guinea also shaded Shots on target 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 41.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Marathonbet. The market was offering 3.45 against a fair line of 3.24. That translated to an edge of 6.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

41.2%

Miss

Market result

Algeria

54.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Guinea

Guinea

Algeria

6

3

Shots on target

Guinea

Guinea

Algeria

3

2

Corners

Guinea

Guinea

Algeria

7

6

Model edge

X

Marathonbet

Market odd

3.45

Fair odd

3.24

Edge

6.5%

Stake

0.55u

That ticket matched the final outcome.