Guinea-Bissau
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Sierra Leone
Postmatch editorial
Draw settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Guinea-Bissau 1-1 Sierra Leone. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Mama Baldé 74', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guinea-Bissau led Shots on target 3-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guinea-Bissau also shaded Total shots 5-0.
Before kickoff, our model made Guinea-Bissau the likeliest result at 44.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea-Bissau at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guinea-Bissau
44.1%
Market result
Guinea-Bissau
46.5%
BTTS
No
55.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone
3
0
Total shots
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone
5
0
Corners
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone
4
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.