Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Djibouti
Postmatch editorial
Guinea-Bissau turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Guinea-Bissau 2-0 Djibouti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Fali Candé scored 82' for Guinea-Bissau.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guinea-Bissau led Total shots 14-1. Guinea-Bissau also shaded Shots on target 4-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Guinea-Bissau the likeliest result at 71.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea-Bissau at 92.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.11 against a fair line of 1.10. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guinea-Bissau
71.9%
Market result
Guinea-Bissau
92.6%
BTTS
No
60.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Djibouti
14
1
Shots on target
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Djibouti
4
1
Corners
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau
Djibouti
7
0
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.11
Fair odd
1.10
Edge
0.9%
Stake
3.34u
That ticket matched the final outcome.