Guinea-Bissau
Burkina Faso won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Burkina Faso
Postmatch editorial
Burkina Faso turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Guinea-Bissau 1-2 Burkina Faso. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Lassina Traoré put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Burkina Faso led Shots on target 2-3. Burkina Faso also shaded Total shots 5-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Burkina Faso the likeliest result at 39.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Burkina Faso at 45.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.7%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Unibet. The market was offering 2.40 against a fair line of 2.30. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Burkina Faso
39.4%
Market result
Burkina Faso
45.9%
BTTS
No
57.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Burkina FasoGuinea-Bissau
Burkina Faso
2
3
Total shots
Burkina FasoGuinea-Bissau
Burkina Faso
5
7
Corners
Burkina FasoGuinea-Bissau
Burkina Faso
3
5
Model edge
2
Unibet
Market odd
2.40
Fair odd
2.30
Edge
4.3%
Stake
0.75u
That ticket matched the final outcome.