Postmatch editorial

Guatemala found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Guatemala 3-1 Suriname. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

D. Lom put the first mark on the match 49', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guatemala led Shots on target 8-3. Guatemala also shaded Total shots 22-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 40.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 48.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 3.90 against a fair line of 3.64. That translated to an edge of 7.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Guatemala

40.0%

Hit

Market result

Suriname

48.1%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Guatemala

Guatemala

Suriname

8

3

Total shots

Guatemala

Guatemala

Suriname

22

9

Corners

Guatemala

Guatemala

Suriname

12

2

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

3.90

Fair odd

3.64

Edge

7.1%

Stake

0.51u

That ticket matched the final outcome.