Guatemala
Panama won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Panama
Postmatch editorial
Panama made the numbers look right
The final score was Guatemala 2-3 Panama. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when José Fajardo scored 78' for Panama.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guatemala led Total shots 24-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guatemala also shaded Corners 9-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 46.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Bet365. The market was offering 3.70 against a fair line of 3.47. That translated to an edge of 6.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Panama
46.4%
Market result
Panama
44.4%
BTTS
No
52.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
GuatemalaGuatemala
Panama
24
9
Corners
GuatemalaGuatemala
Panama
9
2
Shots on target
GuatemalaGuatemala
Panama
8
5
Model edge
X
Bet365
Market odd
3.70
Fair odd
3.47
Edge
6.6%
Stake
0.53u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.