Guatemala
El Salvador won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
El Salvador
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Guatemala 0-1 El Salvador. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Harold Osorio scored 79' for El Salvador.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guatemala led Shots on target 5-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guatemala also shaded Corners 10-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 44.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guatemala at 58.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 888sport. The market was offering 1.85 against a fair line of 1.79. That translated to an edge of 3.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guatemala
44.7%
Market result
Guatemala
58.0%
BTTS
No
51.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GuatemalaGuatemala
El Salvador
5
1
Corners
GuatemalaGuatemala
El Salvador
10
1
Possession
GuatemalaGuatemala
El Salvador
72%
28%
Model edge
1
888sport
Market odd
1.85
Fair odd
1.79
Edge
3.4%
Stake
0.99u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.