Postmatch editorial
The script held and Guatemala delivered it
The final score was Guatemala 4-2 Dominican Republic. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Ó. Santis put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Dominican Republic led Total shots 12-18, even though the scoreboard went another way. Dominican Republic also shaded Shots on target 6-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 38.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guatemala at 46.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 3.87 against a fair line of 3.62. That translated to an edge of 6.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guatemala
38.4%
Market result
Guatemala
46.9%
BTTS
Yes
50.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Dominican RepublicGuatemala
Dominican Republic
12
18
Shots on target
Dominican RepublicGuatemala
Dominican Republic
6
8
Corners
GuatemalaGuatemala
Dominican Republic
4
3
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
3.87
Fair odd
3.62
Edge
6.9%
Stake
0.50u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.