Postmatch editorial

Guatemala turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Guatemala 6-0 Dominica. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when J. Morales scored 83' for Guatemala.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guatemala led Shots on target 15-2. Guatemala also shaded Total shots 29-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 40.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guatemala at 98.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.07 against a fair line of 1.07. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Guatemala

40.2%

Hit

Market result

Guatemala

98.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Guatemala

Guatemala

Dominica

15

2

Total shots

Guatemala

Guatemala

Dominica

29

9

Corners

Guatemala

Guatemala

Dominica

10

3

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

1.07

Fair odd

1.07

Edge

0.0%

Stake

5.00u

That ticket matched the final outcome.