Postmatch editorial

The script held and Guatemala delivered it

The final score was Guatemala 1-0 Cuba. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Luis Martinez put the first mark on the match 60', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guatemala led Shots on target 4-0. Guatemala also shaded Corners 3-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Guatemala the likeliest result at 98.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guatemala at 86.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (78.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.20 against a fair line of 1.19. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Guatemala

98.7%

Hit

Market result

Guatemala

86.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

78.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Guatemala

Guatemala

Cuba

4

0

Corners

Guatemala

Guatemala

Cuba

3

1

Possession

Guatemala

Guatemala

Cuba

59%

41%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.20

Fair odd

1.19

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.27u

That ticket matched the final outcome.