Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Guadalajara 1-0 Ceuta. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Alejandro Cañizo put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Ceuta led Shots on target 1-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Ceuta also shaded Corners 2-8.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Ceuta the favourite at 50.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Ceuta

50.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Ceuta

Guadalajara

Ceuta

1

2

Corners

Ceuta

Guadalajara

Ceuta

2

8

Possession

Ceuta

Guadalajara

Ceuta

39%

61%