Postmatch editorial
Grenada made the numbers look right
The final score was Grenada 6-0 Bahamas. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Jermaine Francis put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Grenada led Shots on target 3-0. Grenada also shaded Total shots 5-0.
Before kickoff, our model made Grenada the likeliest result at 58.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Grenada at 96.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.11 against a fair line of 1.10. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Grenada
58.0%
Market result
Grenada
96.2%
BTTS
Yes
52.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GrenadaGrenada
Bahamas
3
0
Total shots
GrenadaGrenada
Bahamas
5
0
Corners
GrenadaGrenada
Bahamas
2
0
Model edge
1
10bet
Market odd
1.11
Fair odd
1.10
Edge
0.9%
Stake
3.54u
That ticket matched the final outcome.