Postmatch editorial

Greece made the numbers look right

The final score was Greece 3-2 Scotland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Anastasios Bakasetas  put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Greece led Shots on target 10-6. Greece also shaded Total shots 18-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Greece the likeliest result at 44.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Greece at 45.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.6%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Greece

44.9%

Hit

Market result

Greece

45.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Greece

Greece

Scotland

10

6

Total shots

Greece

Greece

Scotland

18

12

Corners

Scotland

Greece

Scotland

6

8

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.