Postmatch editorial

Denmark bent the night away from the script

The final score was Greece 0-3 Denmark. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Rasmus Højlund scored 81' for Denmark.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Denmark led Shots on target 1-8. Denmark also shaded Total shots 4-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Greece the likeliest result at 56.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Greece at 42.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 2.77 against a fair line of 2.63. That translated to an edge of 5.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Greece

56.7%

Miss

Market result

Greece

42.9%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Denmark

Greece

Denmark

1

8

Total shots

Denmark

Greece

Denmark

4

15

Possession

Denmark

Greece

Denmark

44%

56%

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

2.77

Fair odd

2.63

Edge

5.3%

Stake

0.69u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.