Postmatch editorial

Greece made the numbers look right

The final score was Greece 5-1 Belarus. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Konstantinos Karetsas put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Greece led Shots on target 14-4. Greece also shaded Total shots 30-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Greece the likeliest result at 63.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Greece at 86.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Greece

63.6%

Hit

Market result

Greece

86.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Greece

Greece

Belarus

14

4

Total shots

Greece

Greece

Belarus

30

11

Possession

Greece

Greece

Belarus

64%

36%

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.22

Fair odd

1.21

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.12u

That ticket matched the final outcome.