Girona
Girona won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Villarreal
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Girona
The final score was Girona 1-0 Villarreal. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Pau Navarro put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Girona led Shots on target 2-0. Girona also shaded Corners 7-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Villarreal the likeliest result at 37.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Villarreal at 43.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Villarreal
37.7%
Market result
Villarreal
43.6%
BTTS
Yes
59.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GironaGirona
Villarreal
2
0
Corners
GironaGirona
Villarreal
7
4
Possession
GironaGirona
Villarreal
54%
46%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.