Girona
Mallorca won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Mallorca
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Girona 0-1 Mallorca. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Samú Costa put the first mark on the match 43', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Girona led Corners 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Girona also shaded Total shots 14-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Girona the likeliest result at 51.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Girona at 51.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Girona
51.5%
Market result
Girona
51.7%
BTTS
Yes
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
GironaGirona
Mallorca
5
2
Total shots
GironaGirona
Mallorca
14
9
Possession
GironaGirona
Mallorca
59%
41%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.