Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Girona 2-1 FC Barcelona. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

FC Barcelona struck first through Pau Cubarsí 59', but Girona recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Girona led Shots on target 9-4. FC Barcelona also shaded Possession 29%-71%.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Barcelona the likeliest result at 65.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Barcelona at 74.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.42 against a fair line of 1.40. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Barcelona

65.4%

Miss

Market result

FC Barcelona

74.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

56.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Girona

Girona

FC Barcelona

9

4

Possession

FC Barcelona

Girona

FC Barcelona

29%

71%

Total shots

FC Barcelona

Girona

FC Barcelona

13

27

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.42

Fair odd

1.40

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.46u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.