Girona
Celta de Vigo won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Celta de Vigo
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Celta de Vigo
The final score was Girona 1-2 Celta de Vigo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Girona struck first through Vladyslav Vanat 35', but Celta de Vigo recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Girona led Total shots 15-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Girona also shaded Shots on target 7-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 42.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Girona at 40.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
42.8%
Market result
Girona
40.9%
BTTS
No
50.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
GironaGirona
Celta de Vigo
15
6
Shots on target
GironaGirona
Celta de Vigo
7
5
Corners
GironaGirona
Celta de Vigo
10
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.