Girona
Girona won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Athletic Club
Postmatch editorial
Girona found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Girona 3-0 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Claudio Echeverri scored 90+2' for Girona.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Athletic Club led Corners 2-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Athletic Club also shaded Shots on target 6-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 37.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Athletic Club
37.9%
Market result
Athletic Club
40.0%
BTTS
Yes
54.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Athletic ClubGirona
Athletic Club
2
9
Shots on target
Athletic ClubGirona
Athletic Club
6
9
Total shots
Athletic ClubGirona
Athletic Club
14
20
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.