Postmatch editorial

Arouca upset the pre-match prices

The final score was Gil Vicente 1-3 Arouca. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

The decisive turn arrived late when Taichi Fukui scored 82' for Arouca.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Gil Vicente led Corners 6-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Arouca also shaded Shots on target 5-6.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Gil Vicente the favourite at 62.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Gil Vicente

62.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente

Arouca

6

2

Shots on target

Arouca

Gil Vicente

Arouca

5

6

Possession

Arouca

Gil Vicente

Arouca

45%

55%