Postmatch editorial

Montenegro made the numbers look right

The final score was Gibraltar 1-2 Montenegro. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Gibraltar struck first through Liam Jessop 20', but Montenegro recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Montenegro led Shots on target 1-8. Montenegro also shaded Total shots 2-22.

Before kickoff, our model made Montenegro the likeliest result at 47.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Montenegro at 80.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.29 against a fair line of 1.27. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Montenegro

47.5%

Hit

Market result

Montenegro

80.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Montenegro

Gibraltar

Montenegro

1

8

Total shots

Montenegro

Gibraltar

Montenegro

2

22

Corners

Montenegro

Gibraltar

Montenegro

1

9

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.29

Fair odd

1.27

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.78u

That ticket matched the final outcome.