Postmatch editorial

Ghana settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Ghana 1-0 Mali. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Alexander Djiku put the first mark on the match 49', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Mali led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Ghana also shaded Corners 5-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Mali the likeliest result at 37.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ghana at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Marathonbet. The market was offering 3.35 against a fair line of 3.15. That translated to an edge of 6.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mali

37.5%

Miss

Market result

Ghana

40.8%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mali

Ghana

Mali

2

4

Corners

Ghana

Ghana

Mali

5

2

Total shots

Mali

Ghana

Mali

6

9

Model edge

X

Marathonbet

Market odd

3.35

Fair odd

3.15

Edge

6.3%

Stake

0.60u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.