Getafe
Sevilla won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Sevilla
Postmatch editorial
Sevilla settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Getafe 0-1 Sevilla. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Djibril Sow put the first mark on the match 64', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Getafe led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Sevilla also shaded Possession 31%-69%.
Before kickoff, our model made Sevilla the likeliest result at 35.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Getafe at 42.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Sevilla
35.9%
Market result
Getafe
42.6%
BTTS
No
51.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GetafeGetafe
Sevilla
3
1
Possession
SevillaGetafe
Sevilla
31%
69%
Total shots
Getafe
Sevilla
6
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.