Postmatch editorial

Getafe found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Getafe 1-0 Osasuna. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Luis Milla put the first mark on the match 59', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Osasuna led Shots on target 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Osasuna also shaded Total shots 7-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Getafe the likeliest result at 37.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Draw at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.7%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Getafe

37.9%

Hit

Market result

Draw

38.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Osasuna

Getafe

Osasuna

3

5

Total shots

Osasuna

Getafe

Osasuna

7

11

Corners

Osasuna

Getafe

Osasuna

2

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.