Getafe
Getafe won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Athletic Club
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Getafe
The final score was Getafe 2-0 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Martín Satriano scored 90' for Getafe.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Getafe led Shots on target 6-0. Getafe also shaded Total shots 10-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 39.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 40.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Athletic Club
39.2%
Market result
Athletic Club
40.1%
BTTS
No
54.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GetafeGetafe
Athletic Club
6
0
Total shots
GetafeGetafe
Athletic Club
10
5
Possession
Athletic ClubGetafe
Athletic Club
32%
68%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.