Postmatch editorial

Germany turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Germany 3-1 Northern Ireland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Serge Gnabry put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Germany led Shots on target 6-1. Germany also shaded Total shots 11-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Germany the likeliest result at 68.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Germany at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.24 against a fair line of 1.23. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Germany

68.0%

Hit

Market result

Germany

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Germany

Germany

Northern Ireland

6

1

Total shots

Germany

Germany

Northern Ireland

11

3

Possession

Germany

Germany

Northern Ireland

80%

20%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.24

Fair odd

1.23

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.08u

That ticket matched the final outcome.