Postmatch editorial

The script held and Georgia delivered it

The final score was Georgia 3-0 Bulgaria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia put the first mark on the match 30', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Georgia led Shots on target 5-2. Georgia also shaded Total shots 15-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Georgia the likeliest result at 54.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Georgia at 79.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.47 against a fair line of 1.44. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Georgia

54.4%

Hit

Market result

Georgia

79.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Georgia

Georgia

Bulgaria

5

2

Total shots

Georgia

Georgia

Bulgaria

15

5

Corners

Georgia

Georgia

Bulgaria

4

1

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.47

Fair odd

1.44

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.59u

That ticket matched the final outcome.