Genoa
Genoa won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Roma
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Genoa 2-1 Roma. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Vitinha scored 80' for Genoa.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Genoa led Shots on target 5-1. Roma also shaded Possession 36%-64%.
Before kickoff, our model made Roma the likeliest result at 46.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 50.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.7%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Roma
46.0%
Market result
Roma
50.1%
BTTS
No
51.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GenoaGenoa
Roma
5
1
Possession
RomaGenoa
Roma
36%
64%
Corners
RomaGenoa
Roma
3
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.