Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Genoa 3-2 Bologna. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Bologna struck first through Lewis Ferguson 35', but Genoa recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Genoa led Shots on target 6-3. Genoa also shaded Corners 5-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 42.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bologna
42.7%
Market result
Bologna
40.8%
BTTS
No
56.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GenoaGenoa
Bologna
6
3
Corners
GenoaGenoa
Bologna
5
2
Total shots
BolognaGenoa
Bologna
8
13
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.