Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Gambia 3-3 Kenya. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Will Wilson 90+6', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Kenya led Corners 3-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Kenya also shaded Total shots 9-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Gambia the likeliest result at 38.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Gambia at 42.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.35 against a fair line of 2.25. That translated to an edge of 4.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Gambia

38.6%

Miss

Market result

Gambia

42.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

51.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Kenya

Gambia

Kenya

3

4

Total shots

Kenya

Gambia

Kenya

9

10

Possession

Kenya

Gambia

Kenya

49%

51%

Model edge

1

Betsson

Market odd

2.35

Fair odd

2.25

Edge

4.4%

Stake

0.76u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.