Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Draw

The final score was Gabon 0-0 Côte d'Ivoire. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Gabon nor Côte d'Ivoire found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Gabon led Shots on target 3-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Gabon also shaded Corners 7-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Gabon the likeliest result at 38.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Côte d'Ivoire at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.3%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Gabon

38.7%

Miss

Market result

Côte d'Ivoire

46.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Gabon

Gabon

Côte d'Ivoire

3

2

Corners

Gabon

Gabon

Côte d'Ivoire

7

4

Total shots

Côte d'Ivoire

Gabon

Côte d'Ivoire

6

7

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.