Postmatch editorial

West Ham United bent the night away from the script

The final score was Fulham 0-1 West Ham United. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Crysencio Summerville put the first mark on the match 65', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Fulham led Shots on target 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Fulham also shaded Total shots 13-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Fulham the likeliest result at 53.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fulham at 44.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 2.36 against a fair line of 2.26. That translated to an edge of 4.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fulham

53.2%

Miss

Market result

Fulham

44.9%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

61.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Fulham

Fulham

West Ham United

5

3

Total shots

Fulham

Fulham

West Ham United

13

9

Possession

Fulham

Fulham

West Ham United

60%

40%

Model edge

1

Cloudbet

Market odd

2.36

Fair odd

2.26

Edge

4.4%

Stake

0.76u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.