Postmatch editorial
Fulham found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Fulham 1-0 Nottingham Forest. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Raúl Jiménez put the first mark on the match 45+5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nottingham Forest led Shots on target 1-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Nottingham Forest also shaded Corners 1-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Nottingham Forest the likeliest result at 38.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fulham at 39.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nottingham Forest
38.4%
Market result
Fulham
39.1%
BTTS
Yes
57.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Nottingham ForestFulham
Nottingham Forest
1
2
Corners
Nottingham ForestFulham
Nottingham Forest
1
5
Total shots
Nottingham ForestFulham
Nottingham Forest
11
12
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.