Postmatch editorial

The script held and Fulham delivered it

The final score was Fulham 2-0 Newcastle United. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Tom Cairney scored 80' for Fulham.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Fulham led Shots on target 6-2. Fulham also shaded Total shots 21-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Fulham the likeliest result at 41.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fulham at 39.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.88 against a fair line of 2.73. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fulham

41.2%

Hit

Market result

Fulham

39.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

61.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Fulham

Fulham

Newcastle United

6

2

Total shots

Fulham

Fulham

Newcastle United

21

7

Possession

Newcastle United

Fulham

Newcastle United

45%

55%

Model edge

1

Mansionbet

Market odd

2.88

Fair odd

2.73

Edge

5.5%

Stake

0.64u

That ticket matched the final outcome.