Postmatch editorial
Fulham flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Fulham 2-1 Chelsea. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Harry Wilson scored 81' for Fulham.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Chelsea led Corners 2-11, even though the scoreboard went another way. Chelsea also shaded Shots on target 5-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 47.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chelsea at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
47.5%
Market result
Chelsea
48.8%
BTTS
Yes
58.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
ChelseaFulham
Chelsea
2
11
Shots on target
ChelseaFulham
Chelsea
5
6
Possession
FulhamFulham
Chelsea
55%
45%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.