Postmatch editorial

Fulham made the numbers look right

The final score was Fulham 3-1 Burnley. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Burnley struck first through Zian Flemming 60', but Fulham recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Fulham led Total shots 22-9. Fulham also shaded Shots on target 6-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Fulham the likeliest result at 54.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fulham at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.6%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fulham

54.0%

Hit

Market result

Fulham

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Fulham

Fulham

Burnley

22

9

Shots on target

Fulham

Fulham

Burnley

6

5

Possession

Fulham

Fulham

Burnley

56%

44%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.