Postmatch editorial

AFC Bournemouth found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Fulham 0-1 AFC Bournemouth. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Rayan put the first mark on the match 53', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: AFC Bournemouth led Shots on target 2-5. Fulham also shaded Corners 11-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Fulham the likeliest result at 45.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced AFC Bournemouth at 40.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.9%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fulham

45.1%

Miss

Market result

AFC Bournemouth

40.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

59.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

AFC Bournemouth

Fulham

AFC Bournemouth

2

5

Corners

Fulham

Fulham

AFC Bournemouth

11

2

Possession

Fulham

Fulham

AFC Bournemouth

60%

40%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.