Postmatch editorial

The pre-match tension never quite broke

The final score was FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Danny da Costa 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FSV Mainz 05 led Shots on target 6-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. FSV Mainz 05 also shaded Total shots 18-11.

Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 40.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 51.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 3.80 against a fair line of 3.55. That translated to an edge of 7.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

VfB Stuttgart

40.6%

Miss

Market result

VfB Stuttgart

51.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

55.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

VfB Stuttgart

6

4

Total shots

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

VfB Stuttgart

18

11

Possession

VfB Stuttgart

FSV Mainz 05

VfB Stuttgart

38%

62%

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

3.80

Fair odd

3.55

Edge

7.0%

Stake

0.51u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.