Postmatch editorial

SC Freiburg bent the night away from the script

The final score was FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Lucas Höler put the first mark on the match 47', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FSV Mainz 05 led Corners 6-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. FSV Mainz 05 also shaded Total shots 10-8.

Before kickoff, our model made FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest result at 53.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FSV Mainz 05 at 45.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.1%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

FSV Mainz 05

53.9%

Miss

Market result

FSV Mainz 05

45.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

55.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg

6

4

Total shots

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg

10

8

Possession

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

SC Freiburg

51%

49%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.