FSV Mainz 05
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Hamburger SV
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Nadiem Amiri put the first mark on the match 42', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FSV Mainz 05 led Corners 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Hamburger SV also shaded Shots on target 3-5.
Before kickoff, our model made FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest result at 46.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced FSV Mainz 05 at 48.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FSV Mainz 05
46.9%
Market result
FSV Mainz 05
48.3%
BTTS
Yes
51.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
7
2
Shots on target
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
3
5
Total shots
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
17
14
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.