FSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
FC Union Berlin
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1-3 FC Union Berlin. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Josip Juranovic scored 90+1' for FC Union Berlin.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Union Berlin led Shots on target 4-9. FSV Mainz 05 also shaded Possession 53%-47%.
Before kickoff, our model made FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest result at 51.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced FSV Mainz 05 at 59.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FSV Mainz 05
51.6%
Market result
FSV Mainz 05
59.5%
BTTS
Yes
56.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FC Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
4
9
Possession
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
53%
47%
Corners
FC Union BerlinFSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
7
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.