Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1-3 FC Union Berlin. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

The decisive turn arrived late when Josip Juranovic scored 90+1' for FC Union Berlin.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Union Berlin led Shots on target 4-9. FSV Mainz 05 also shaded Possession 53%-47%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 59.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

FSV Mainz 05

59.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05

FC Union Berlin

4

9

Possession

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

FC Union Berlin

53%

47%

Corners

FC Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05

FC Union Berlin

7

8