FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München won after full-time.
3 - 4
FT
FC Bayern München
Postmatch editorial
FC Bayern München turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 3-4 FC Bayern München. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
FSV Mainz 05 struck first through Dominik Kohr 15', but FC Bayern München recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Possession 30%-70%. FSV Mainz 05 also shaded Total shots 21-11.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 66.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 52.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
66.0%
Market result
FC Bayern München
52.9%
BTTS
Yes
50.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
FC Bayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
30%
70%
Total shots
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
21
11
Shots on target
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
8
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.