FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Eintracht Frankfurt
Postmatch editorial
The script held and FSV Mainz 05 delivered it
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Paul Nebel scored 89' for FSV Mainz 05.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Eintracht Frankfurt led Possession 30%-70%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Eintracht Frankfurt also shaded Total shots 8-12.
Before kickoff, our model made FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest result at 54.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced FSV Mainz 05 at 45.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FSV Mainz 05
54.8%
Market result
FSV Mainz 05
45.9%
BTTS
No
50.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
Eintracht FrankfurtFSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
30%
70%
Total shots
Eintracht FrankfurtFSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
12
Corners
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
5
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.