France
France won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
Ukraine
Postmatch editorial
The script held and France delivered it
The final score was France 4-0 Ukraine. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Hugo Ekitiké scored 88' for France.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: France led Shots on target 10-0. France also shaded Total shots 25-1.
Before kickoff, our model made France the likeliest result at 61.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced France at 87.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.24 against a fair line of 1.23. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
France
61.3%
Market result
France
87.0%
BTTS
No
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FranceFrance
Ukraine
10
0
Total shots
FranceFrance
Ukraine
25
1
Corners
FranceFrance
Ukraine
7
0
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.24
Fair odd
1.23
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.13u
That ticket matched the final outcome.