France
France won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Azerbaijan
Postmatch editorial
France turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was France 3-0 Azerbaijan. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Florian Thauvin scored 84' for France.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: France led Shots on target 9-0. France also shaded Total shots 33-1.
Before kickoff, our model made France the likeliest result at 85.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced France at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (70.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
France
85.4%
Market result
France
99.0%
BTTS
No
70.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FranceFrance
Azerbaijan
9
0
Total shots
FranceFrance
Azerbaijan
33
1
Corners
FranceFrance
Azerbaijan
10
0
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.