Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Fiorentina 1-1 Inter. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Cher Ndour 77', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Fiorentina led Shots on target 6-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Inter also shaded Possession 40%-60%.

Before kickoff, our model made Inter the likeliest result at 50.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Inter at 61.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.8%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Inter

50.0%

Miss

Market result

Inter

61.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

Inter

6

4

Possession

Inter

Fiorentina

Inter

40%

60%

Corners

Inter

Fiorentina

Inter

3

5

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.