Postmatch editorial

The script held and Fiorentina delivered it

The final score was Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Yacine Adli put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Empoli led Corners 1-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Empoli also shaded Shots on target 3-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Fiorentina the likeliest result at 61.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fiorentina at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.10 against a fair line of 2.02. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fiorentina

61.6%

Hit

Market result

Fiorentina

47.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Empoli

Fiorentina

Empoli

1

6

Shots on target

Empoli

Fiorentina

Empoli

3

5

Total shots

Empoli

Fiorentina

Empoli

6

8

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

2.10

Fair odd

2.02

Edge

4.0%

Stake

0.87u

That ticket matched the final outcome.