Fiorentina
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Atalanta
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Pietro Comuzzo 82', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atalanta led Total shots 11-21, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atalanta also shaded Shots on target 4-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Atalanta the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atalanta at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atalanta
36.4%
Market result
Atalanta
44.4%
BTTS
Yes
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
AtalantaFiorentina
Atalanta
11
21
Shots on target
AtalantaFiorentina
Atalanta
4
6
Possession
AtalantaFiorentina
Atalanta
40%
60%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.