Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Finland

The final score was Finland 2-1 Poland. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Joel Pohjanpalo put the first mark on the match 31', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Poland led Shots on target 4-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Poland also shaded Total shots 13-24.

Before kickoff, our model made Poland the likeliest result at 38.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Poland at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 3.90 against a fair line of 3.64. That translated to an edge of 7.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Poland

38.5%

Miss

Market result

Poland

43.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

56.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Poland

Finland

Poland

4

9

Total shots

Poland

Finland

Poland

13

24

Possession

Poland

Finland

Poland

47%

53%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

3.90

Fair odd

3.64

Edge

7.1%

Stake

0.51u

That ticket matched the final outcome.